000			03664nam a2200361Ia 4500
001			1620
008			230305s2015 xx 000 0 und d
020			_a9781847947154
041			_aeng
245		0	_aSuperforecasting
260			_a _bRandom House, _c2015
300			_a340 p. ; 20 cm
500			_athe art and science of prediction
505			_aAn optimistic skeptic _rIllusions of knowledge-- _rKeeping score-- _rSuperforecasters-- _rSupersmart?-- _rSuperquants?-- _rSupernewsjunkies?-- _rPerpetual beta-- _rSuperteams-- _rThe leader's dilemma-- _rAre they really so super?-- _rWhat's next?-- _rEpilogue-- _rAn invitation-- _rAppendix: Ten commandments for aspiring superforecasters.--
520			_a'From one of the world's most highly regarded social scientists, a transformative book on the habits of mind that lead to the best predictions. Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week's meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts' predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people--including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer--who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They've beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They've even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are 'superforecasters.' In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden's compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn't require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future--whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life--and is destined to become a modern classic'--Provided by publisher.
590			_bIncludes bibliographical references (pages 291-328) and index. ;
630			_aHB Economic Theory. Demography _918
650			_aEconomic forecasting _95588
650			_aForecasting _93447
650		0	_aBusiness forecasting _96240
650			_aSOCIAL SCIENCE Future Studies _95590
650			_aPSYCHOLOGY Cognitive Psychology _95591
650			_a _912
700			_aGardner, Dan _eAuthor _95592
700			_aTetlock, Philip _eAuthor _95593
856			_uhttps://books.google.es/books?id=hC_qBQAAQBAJ&lpg=PP1&dq=superforecasting&hl=es&pg=PP1#v=onepage&q=superforecasting&f=false
902			_a608
905			_am
912			_a2015-01-01
942			_a1
953			_d2016-10-19 16:51:08
999			_c953 _d953