MARC details
| 000 -CABECERA |
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| campo de control de longitud fija |
03664nam a2200361Ia 4500 |
| 001 - NÚMERO DE CONTROL |
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| campo de control |
1620 |
| 008 - DATOS DE LONGITUD FIJA--INFORMACIÓN GENERAL |
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| campo de control de longitud fija |
230305s2015 xx 000 0 und d |
| 020 ## - NÚMERO INTERNACIONAL ESTÁNDAR DEL LIBRO |
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| Número Internacional Estándar del Libro |
9781847947154 |
| 041 ## - CÓDIGO DE LENGUA |
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| Código de lengua del texto/banda sonora o título independiente |
eng |
| 245 #0 - MENCIÓN DE TÍTULO |
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| Título |
Superforecasting |
| 260 ## - PUBLICACIÓN, DISTRIBUCIÓN, ETC. |
|---|
| Lugar de publicación, distribución, etc. |
|
| Nombre del editor, distribuidor, etc. |
Random House, |
| Fecha de publicación, distribución, etc. |
2015 |
| 300 ## - DESCRIPCIÓN FÍSICA |
|---|
| Extensión |
340 p. ; 20 cm |
| 500 ## - NOTA GENERAL |
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| Nota general |
the art and science of prediction |
| 505 ## - NOTA DE CONTENIDO CON FORMATO |
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| Nota de contenido con formato |
An optimistic skeptic |
| Mención de responsabilidad |
Illusions of knowledge-- |
| -- |
Keeping score-- |
| -- |
Superforecasters-- |
| -- |
Supersmart?-- |
| -- |
Superquants?-- |
| -- |
Supernewsjunkies?-- |
| -- |
Perpetual beta-- |
| -- |
Superteams-- |
| -- |
The leader's dilemma-- |
| -- |
Are they really so super?-- |
| -- |
What's next?-- |
| -- |
Epilogue-- |
| -- |
An invitation-- |
| -- |
Appendix: Ten commandments for aspiring superforecasters.-- |
| 520 ## - SUMARIO, ETC. |
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| Sumario, etc. |
'From one of the world's most highly regarded social scientists, a transformative book on the habits of mind that lead to the best predictions. Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week's meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts' predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people--including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer--who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They've beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They've even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are 'superforecasters.' In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden's compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn't require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future--whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life--and is destined to become a modern classic'--Provided by publisher. |
| 590 ## - NOTA LOCAL (RLIN) |
|---|
| Procedencia (VM) [OBSOLETO] |
Includes bibliographical references (pages 291-328) and index. ; |
| 630 ## - PUNTO DE ACCESO ADICIONAL DE MATERIA--TÍTULO UNIFORME |
|---|
| Título uniforme |
HB Economic Theory. Demography |
| 9 (RLIN) |
18 |
| 650 ## - PUNTO DE ACCESO ADICIONAL DE MATERIA--TÉRMINO DE MATERIA |
|---|
| Término de materia o nombre geográfico como elemento de entrada |
Economic forecasting |
| 9 (RLIN) |
5588 |
| 650 ## - PUNTO DE ACCESO ADICIONAL DE MATERIA--TÉRMINO DE MATERIA |
|---|
| Término de materia o nombre geográfico como elemento de entrada |
Forecasting |
| 9 (RLIN) |
3447 |
| 650 #0 - PUNTO DE ACCESO ADICIONAL DE MATERIA--TÉRMINO DE MATERIA |
|---|
| Término de materia o nombre geográfico como elemento de entrada |
Business forecasting |
| 9 (RLIN) |
6240 |
| 650 ## - PUNTO DE ACCESO ADICIONAL DE MATERIA--TÉRMINO DE MATERIA |
|---|
| Término de materia o nombre geográfico como elemento de entrada |
SOCIAL SCIENCE Future Studies |
| 9 (RLIN) |
5590 |
| 650 ## - PUNTO DE ACCESO ADICIONAL DE MATERIA--TÉRMINO DE MATERIA |
|---|
| Término de materia o nombre geográfico como elemento de entrada |
PSYCHOLOGY Cognitive Psychology |
| 9 (RLIN) |
5591 |
| 650 ## - PUNTO DE ACCESO ADICIONAL DE MATERIA--TÉRMINO DE MATERIA |
|---|
| Término de materia o nombre geográfico como elemento de entrada |
|
| 9 (RLIN) |
12 |
| 700 ## - ENTRADA AGREGADA--NOMBRE PERSONAL |
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| Nombre de persona |
Gardner, Dan |
| Término indicativo de función/relación |
Author |
| 9 (RLIN) |
5592 |
| 700 ## - ENTRADA AGREGADA--NOMBRE PERSONAL |
|---|
| Nombre de persona |
Tetlock, Philip |
| Término indicativo de función/relación |
Author |
| 9 (RLIN) |
5593 |
| 856 ## - LOCALIZACIÓN Y ACCESO ELECTRÓNICOS |
|---|
| Identificador Uniforme del Recurso |
<a href="https://books.google.es/books?id=hC_qBQAAQBAJ&lpg=PP1&dq=superforecasting&hl=es&pg=PP1#v=onepage&q=superforecasting&f=false">https://books.google.es/books?id=hC_qBQAAQBAJ&lpg=PP1&dq=superforecasting&hl=es&pg=PP1#v=onepage&q=superforecasting&f=false</a> |
| 902 ## - ELEMENTOS DE DATOS B LOCAL, LDB (RLIN) |
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| a |
608 |
| 905 ## - ELEMENTOS DE DATOS E LOCAL, LDE (RLIN) |
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| a |
m |
| 912 ## - |
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| -- |
2015-01-01 |
| 942 ## - ELEMENTOS DE ENTRADA AGREGADA (KOHA) |
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| Código de la institución [OBSOLETO] |
1 |
| 953 ## - |
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| -- |
2016-10-19 16:51:08 |
